For over 40 years, the federal seat of Calwell has stood as a pillar of Labor power.
But in a stunning shift at the 2025 federal election, the once rusted-on electorate in Melbourne’s north is now too close to call, with independents and minor parties turning the seat into a political battleground.
“Calwell right now combines all the major features of Australian politics in 2025 – voter dislike for the major parties, a strong candidate treated poorly by her party and running as an independent, pro- Palestine candidates taking votes from Liberal and Labor, and independent candidates working together to oust an entrenched party,” said Dr Jill Sheppard, political scientist at the Australian National University.
At the centre of the storm are independents Carly Moore and Joseph Youhana, both generating grassroots momentum amid rising dissatisfaction with the major parties.
Their campaigns have captured the mood of disillusioned voters and forced Labor, which put up Basem Abdo as its candidate to replace long-serving MP Maria Vamvakinou, into a defensive scramble.
“In trying to run a highly scripted, stage-managed campaign, the ALP has left the door wide open for candidates like Carly Moore and Joseph Youhana,” Dr Sheppard said.
The independent pair’s strategy included preference-swapping.
“The effect of preference swapping between independent candidates is reminiscent of Senate elections prior to 2016, when independent and micro-party candidates worked together to flow preferences towards one designated candidate, leading to the election of Senators like Ricky Muir and Jacqui Lambie,” Dr Sheppard explained.
She warned that the major parties still hadn’t adapted.
“The ALP and Liberals never learned from this, they simply changed the electoral system to protect their status.“
“Calwell is showing that changing rules won’t win voters back, and smart independents remain more innovative and driven than the major parties.”
Dr Sheppard believes what’s unfolding in Calwell is more than a local drama.
“What’s happening in Calwell will become a template for similar seats– Wills, Blaxland, Watson, even seats like Menzies– in future elections,” she said.
A source close to the Calwell count described it as a “basket case”, with the Australian Electoral Commission struggling to manage the flow of preferences.
“The question now is whether one of the two independent candidates or the Liberal contender will win,” the source said.
